You go to the pump and there it is, in brilliant LCD: $51.57. Fifty bucks for a tank of gas. That's half a C note a week to get down the road, and it might soon be double that, as the summer months creep up and prices climb. Already, the national average for gas prices has increased. According to AAA, prices are significantly higher than last year, and the expectation is that they will continue to rise. In some areas, that translates into a 20 cent or more increase at the pump; a startling fact when you consider that fuel prices aren't due to increase until the summer months. At this rate, the price per gallon of gas in some areas will top $3 at the height of summer prices.
The sudden spike is the result of low oil inventories and delivery problems, caused by an accident on the Mississippi river. After a brief period of stability, AAA expects fuel prices to begin to increase in April, as refineries switch over to a "summer mix" of fuel. With more vehicles on the road, refineries shift their processing to a lower polluting type of gasoline. The result is a gasoline double whammy, a merging of increases with no relief in sight. It's not a question of if - only when. The only real question is, will we continue to purchase sub 20 mpg vehicles when the price per gallon reaches $3 per? A dollar more per gallon translates into more than five cents additional per mile; based on 15,000 miles of driving per year, that means a real increase of almost $1,000 a year. That doesn't factor in the type of driver and the roads we drive on, nor does it account for the fact that most people drive more during peak months for fuel prices.
Page 2: Retro 70sThat kind of shift in prices could very well signal another adjustment in consumer demand, just as it did during the '70s. Then, import automakers saw the looming oil shortages, took note of the prices and began shipping compact vehicles and other fuel-light vehicles to our shores.
It seems as if it is happening all over again. Realizing that people will likely not go back to compacts, Toyota and Honda are well-positioned to offer consumers hybrid powertrains across their vehicle lineups: a key headstart over Ford, General Motors and DaimlerChrysler, considering the changing face of autos and what consumers buy:
Fuel prices will increase to the point where people will begin buying cars that save money at the pump. But it won't be econo boxes and compacts, as it was so long ago. Automakers will deliver the same types of vehicles consumers have grown accustomed to by using "hybrid" technology and super-efficient engines. Hybrid technology is based on a simple concept: combine a traditional internal combustion engine with the battery and electric motor of an electric vehicle, and you'll get significant fuel economy and virtually zero pollutants. For example, a hybrid vehicle essentially "stalls" when at a stop. When you step on the accelerator, the electric motor instantly engages the engine and zoooom - of you go. No more idling cars spouting black tar out of tailpipes. Hybrids on the market today include the Honda Insight, a two-door vehicle that looks like a hybrid; the Toyota Prius, a futuristic vehicle that has become the Trend du Jour among Hollywood's royalty; and the Honda Civic Hybrid - which is exactly what it says - a Civic - and has ushered in the application of hybrid power into mass market cars.
Page 3: Hybrid SUVs
And while the Civic Hybrid is a landmark vehicle in the application of hybrid technology, it's still a Civic - and regular Civics already perform at a high level of fuel efficiency. What's new now is even bigger, and strikes directly at what the market needs: a hybrid SUV. The Ford Escape hybrid carries with it a realistic miles per gallon of about 28 -- significantly better than the existing Escape. This is a full hybrid, able to run on either its gasoline engine and/or the electric motor depending on which delivers the most efficient fuel performance, and is available in front-wheel and all-wheel drive configurations.
Not a bad start – and there’s more on the way, namely Toyota’s third-row Highlander Hybrid (coming this summer) and the just-released Lexus RX 400h. Both vehicles are virtually identical, and will use a more powerful version of the Prius’ synergy Drive system. After that, there will be a deluge of hybrid vehicles, with more coming from Honda, Toyota, Ford and perhaps even General Motors. While The General has yeet to enter the hybrid contest, they have long been promising consumer hybrid powertrains for the Saturn VUE, Chevrolet Malibu, Tahoe and Silverado. When these cars make it to dealer lots is anyone’s guess – and it may well be too late in the game for GM to get involved in the chase for hybrid customers. That’s becoming a significant market, too, considering the appeal of the Prius and Ford Escape Hybrid.
Page 4: Convenience
So automakers clearly think that we will shortly be looking for a fuel-efficient alternative, which means that gas prices as we know them soon will be a distant memory. Based once again on a 15,000-mile annual driving rate, it will cost you $1800 to drive a non-hybrid Escape XLT at $3 per gallon. A hybrid version of the same Escape will cost approximately $1100, a savings of $700 per year, based on EPA numbers. So if Ford sells the hybrid version for $2,000 more than the standard, the math indicates that consumers break even at around the three-year mark, but the reality of driving means that it could be sooner. Mix in the $2,000 tax rebate and the savings are obvious.
What's not obvious, however - but just as crucial as the electric motor in the hybrid equation - is the work automakers are doing with internal combustion engine efficiency. The Civic Hybrid uses Honda's super-clean 4-cylinder IMA engine, and the Prius engine is a 4-cylinder overhead cam that rates as SULEV for emissions - the best possible rating in California. These steps toward improvement are felt throughout entire vehicle line-ups. Honda has improved the fuel efficiency of virtually all Acuras and Hondas, as has Toyota. new cars are being released that have virtual zero emissions ratings.
Make that partial zero emission, or PZEV (Partial Zero Emission Vehicles) for short.
A PZEV rating requires that a vehicle meet the Super Ultra Low Emission Vehicle (SULEV) standard for tailpipe exhaust emissions, and emit virtually zero emissions from the vaporization of fuel in the gas tank and fuel system. Already at dealership near you is the Camry PZEV and the Ford Focus PZEV.
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Page 5: New engines
The Focus is powered by the new I-4 engine makes extensive use of lightweight aluminum components, which offer both a weight savings - approximately 40 pounds compared with the equivalent Zetec I-4 engine - and chassis dynamics benefits, such as improved weight distribution front-to-rear and higher power-to-weight ratio.
Put the two together and you get regular cars with low polluting engines and the regenerative power of a battery cell. It's an in-the-box solution that requires nothing new in the way of fuel or infrastructure. Drivers don't have to do anything, and as the technology is refined so to will be the warranties that protect it. It's a combination that works when it comes to building cars that feature higher fuel efficiency and lower emissions ratings, with the same or better performance and space standards.
As gas prices continue to soar and car buyers get serious about saving money at the pump, that's a combination that may well have a lasting impact on the types of cars we drive.
